Authors: Uma Perumal, Vasantharajan Renganathan
Abstract: Existing methods like Bayesian, Hamilton-Jacobi and Gaussian process are with limitations. A novel method with modifications of treating uncertainty propagation through time as a stochastic optimal transport problem on evolving manifolds, where the manifold structure itself is learned causally is developed named Novel Causal Manifold Schrodinger Bridge (NCMSB). This method is synonymous with fluid mechanics and uses modified Schrodinger Bridge and Riemannian Manifolds. This is applied as a cross-function to electricity market to deal the problem of negative pricing (NP) arising due to renewable energy integration to the grid. NCMSB is used to mitigate the losses faced by electricity operators (EO) due to power generating equipment shut-down and prepare the EO to plan accordingly for an unexpected situation, reduce loss and run the electricity system with lesser stress that improves the life and loading-unloading cycle of the equipment.
