Authors: Gayatri Dilip Gohil
Abstract: This paper examines the multifaceted relationship between the United States and India's export sector through empirical analysis of trade data from 2000-2024. Using multiple regression models and time-series analysis, we investigate how various US economic indicators, policy shifts, and bilateral agreements have influenced the volume, composition, and growth trajectory of Indian exports. Our findings indicate a strong positive correlation between US GDP growth and Indian export performance, with certain sectors demonstrating higher elasticity to US economic cycles. The research also identifies significant structural shifts in the trade relationship following key events such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2017-2019 trade tensions, and the COVID-19 pandemic. We conclude that while US-India trade relations have evolved toward greater integration and complexity, Indian export vulnerability to US economic fluctuations persists, suggesting the need for strategic diversification while maintaining the vital US market access.
