Authors: Emmanuel Conteh, Kalie Marah
Abstract: This paper estimates the association between the implementation of Sierra Leone's local content policy (LCP) and sectoral economic growth over 2015–2025. Using a balanced panel of six sectors (mining, construction, agriculture, manufacturing, tourism and energy) observed annually, giving 66 sector-year observations, we regress sectoral output growth on a composite LCP implementation index. The models control for sector investment, export intensity and inflation, and absorb sector and year fixed effects. The baseline two-way fixed-effects estimate is positive: a one-point rise in the 0–100 index is associated with 0.20 percentage points higher output growth (HC1 p = 0.007; wild cluster bootstrap p = 0.013), or about two percentage points for a ten-point rise. The estimate is similar when 2020 is excluded (0.16). Among the index components, the evidence points to local firm participation (0.07; bootstrap p = 0.037) rather than local procurement or local employment shares. The result is not robust, however. It disappears when the index is lagged by one year, and no within-year association is found with the log value-added index once common time effects are controlled. We therefore read the evidence as suggestive of a contemporaneous but short-lived growth association, not as proof of a causal long-run effect. With six sectors and eleven years, the study is a transparent first quantitative assessment rather than a definitive evaluation. We discuss measurement, data-consistency and identification limits, and draw implications for the design, monitoring and phased review of the Local Content Agency Act 2016.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23762577
