Authors: Assistant Professor Gargi Mishra, Associate Professor Dr. R. Kavitha Priya
Abstract: Climate change increases the physical threat posed to natural and socioeconomic systems in an ever-increasing manner and requires robust frameworks of risk assessment based on quantitative tools. In this paper, a comprehensive approach for the quantification of climate change risk is presented in terms of mathematical modeling of hazards, exposures and vulnerability functions. In order to do this, an approach considering several hazards including extreme precipitation, hydrological drought, sea-level rise, and compound event risk has been adopted with the use of ensemble climate projections from CMIP6 under several scenarios according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The fundamental parts of the approach consist of statistical downscaling of the projections, copula modeling of multivariate dependence between different hazards, and uncertainty propagation through the use of Monte Carlo simulation. The implementation of the approach through a case study area illustrates its capacity in providing explicit information about risk metrics, critical infrastructure vulnerability, and adaptation under deep uncertainty. Comparisons with alternative risk assessment methodologies have highlighted the strength of the proposed approach in handling the dynamics of compound events and their tail dependencies.
DOI: http://doi.org/
